October 15 Phosphate Daily: Phosphates Remain Weak, Sulfur Center Moves Lower

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 15, the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3741.25, flat versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4050.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 4350.00, flat versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic MAP market continued to run weak. On the enterprise side, most plants are still executing earlier orders and continue to apply floor-price policies; plant prices have shown no obvious change for now, and actual transactions are negotiated. On the market side, supply has declined somewhat due to environmental inspections at some units, but the trading atmosphere is sluggish and quiet. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually drawing to a close, market inventory is ample, low-end goods still appear, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises still purchase mainly on rigid demand and are in no hurry to place new orders, market sentiment is fairly cautious, and demand remains fairly weak. On the raw material side, today domestic sulfur prices continued to fall; sulfur port inventory remains at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices consolidated on the strong side; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; raw material prices on the cost side fell somewhat, weakening support for enterprises. Overall, the MAP market currently maintains a pattern of marginally weakening cost support amid feeble demand recovery, and is expected to remain weak in the short term. Going forward, focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream autumn fertilizer demand, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

MAP Market Price (yuan/t)

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 15, the domestic mainstream DAP 64% granular index was 4591.67, flat versus the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4150.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 4000.00, flat versus the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic DAP market continued its weak consolidation. On the enterprise side, some enterprises are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders, market prices are fairly chaotic, low prices keep increasing, and actual transactions remain negotiated. On the market side, bearish sentiment continues to spread. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its closing stage, low prices appear frequently, the trading atmosphere is sluggish and quiet, downstream procurement is mostly concentrated on small rigid-demand orders, some traders are under pressure, and market prices are moving weakly lower. On the raw material side, today domestic sulfur prices continued to fall; sulfur port inventory remains at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices consolidated on the strong side; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; raw material prices on the cost side fell somewhat, weakening support for enterprises. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak posture in the short term; going forward, focus on changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

DAP Market Price (yuan/t)

Sulfur Market Price:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 15, the domestic sulfur granular price at Zhenjiang Port was 6600 yuan/t, down 250 yuan/t from the previous working day; the granular price at Dafeng Port was 6580 yuan/t, down 250 yuan/t from the previous working day; the lump/powder price at Zhenjiang Port was 6550 yuan/t, down 250 yuan/t from the previous working day; the lump/powder price at Dafeng Port was 6530 yuan/t, down 250 yuan/t from the previous working day; the East China solid price was 7200 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; and the East China liquid price was 6200 yuan/t, down 285 yuan/t from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic sulfur market continued its weak downward trend. On the port side, the granular sulfur market at Yangtze River ports came under pressure and weakened today. Low-price news of East China domestic supply continued to spread in the market, directly dragging on market sentiment, watchful sentiment among players heated up, and overall trading became sluggish. Holders' selling sentiment loosened, they proactively lowered offers, and willingness to ship increased; although the buying side showed some tentative price-pressing, overall willingness to enter the market was low, buyers and sellers remained locked in a stalemate, and substantive transactions were few. Liquid sulfur in the Shandong region continued its downward trend. Some refineries in East China accumulated inventory and faced greater destocking pressure; their price concessions to ship exceeded market expectations, prompting Shandong refineries to follow with lower quotes, and the regional weak pattern has not yet reversed. Downstream generally holds a "buy on rising, not falling" mentality, procurement remains prudent, rigid-demand follow-through is insufficient, and market trading is sluggish. Some refineries have a strong destocking need and are negotiating concessions on solid sulfur shipments to external buyers; combined with logistics-related costs being transmitted to the ports, this further suppressed port buyers' willingness to enter, port buying retreated into a wait-and-see stance, market confidence weakened, and the market's center of gravity shifted lower. In the morning session, port trading was overall thin with no notable deal rumors. After low-priced offers for liquid and solid sulfur from domestic refineries emerged, market participants generally chose to stand by, and no large-volume deals were concluded for now, but the port quote center had already been dragged lower. The sharp fall in domestic resource prices continued to amplify port traders' wait-and-see sentiment, and the market is likely to extend this bearish expectation in the short term. If the current weak pattern persists, sulfur prices still have room to probe further downward.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Regional Market Quotes Overview (yuan/t)

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News Updates:

Oct 15: The Anhui MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3750-3850 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Northeast MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3900-4000 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Henan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3700-3750 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Hubei MAP market quoted mainstream 55% powder ex-works at around 3600-3700 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Jiangsu MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3700-3820 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Shandong MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3700-3800 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Sichuan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3650-3750 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Yunnan MAP market quoted 55% powder ex-works at around 3700-3800 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Shaanxi DAP market quoted 60% self-pickup ex-works at 4600-4650 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Northeast DAP market quoted 64% self-pickup ex-works at 5000-5050 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Hebei DAP market quoted 57% self-pickup at 4000-4100 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Hubei DAP market quoted 64% self-pickup ex-works at 4700-4850 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 15: The Shandong DAP market quoted 64% self-pickup ex-warehouse at 4600-4900 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady; 57% self-pickup platform at 3900-4050 yuan/t, with quotes cut.