Phosphate Monthly: Transmission Resonance Under Negative Demand Feedback (202610)

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis and Outlook

1.1 MAP Market Price Analysis

In October, the domestic MAP market fell sharply, with a cautious mood persisting across the industry and concluded business relatively thin. On the raw material side, sulfur prices retreated substantially from their highs, sulphuric acid was weak and steady, and phosphate rock prices edged slightly lower, bringing the overall industry cost down. Downstream compound fertilizer producers moved through the autumn fertilizer season without much vigor and entered the closing stage; terminal buying interest was subdued, compound fertilizer plants focused on digesting their own finished goods inventory, plant operating loads gradually declined, and enthusiasm for raw material replenishment was low, with limited follow-through on actual orders, so MAP prices continued to move lower.

Based on FDD data calculations: as of October 30, 2026, the domestic MAP 55% powder index stood at 3,661.25, down 190.00 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decline of 4.93%; the 55% granular index was 3,925.00, down 325.00 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decline of 7.65%; and the 58% powder index was 3,866.67, down 483.33 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decline of 11.11%.

In the first half of the month, the market center continued to shift lower and quotations were relatively disorderly, with Hubei 55% powder ex-works quoted around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t and deals kept on a negotiated basis. Autumn fertilizer terminal demand was limited, downstream compound fertilizer plants moved finished goods slowly, and having stocked raw materials heavily earlier, combined with high plant and social inventories and a steady flow of low-priced cargo, downstream replenishment willingness was sluggish. In mid-month low-end prices probed further down: under large plants' floor-price policy, 55% powder was quoted at 3,850 yuan/t ex-works and 58% powder at 4,100 yuan/t ex-works, while quotations from small plants and traders slid to around 3,600-3,650 yuan/t on thin concluded business. Wheat fertilization in North China gradually wound down, compound fertilizer operating rates kept falling, most enterprises held ample raw material stocks and showed little appetite for replenishment; combined with the impact of regional environmental inspections, MAP plant operating loads fell markedly.

In the second half of the month, the market remained weak and the price center continued to shift lower, showing a diverging pattern of floor prices at large plants and flexible quotations from small plants and traders. New orders were hard to secure, more enterprises cut production or shut down, industry capacity utilization kept declining, and inventory pressure had yet to ease. Sulfur prices fell back below 5,000 yuan/t, further weighing on market sentiment. Winter storage had not yet started and the market entered a demand gap; with a strong "buy on rises, not on falls" mentality, the transaction center kept moving down. Burdened by shipment pressure, Hubei ex-works prices were hard to stop falling, yet downstream acceptance was low; small plants and traders kept conceding to win orders, with low-end cargo around 3,550 yuan/t and actual deals mostly concluded case by case.

1.2 DAP Market Price Analysis

In October, the domestic DAP market moved weakly lower. Raw material prices declined weakly during the month, cost support weakened, some enterprises left room for concessions to encourage business, demand was feeble, market sentiment remained under pressure, and low-priced cargo appeared frequently. As autumn fertilization neared its end, some enterprises carried out maintenance or cut production, and monthly output fell noticeably from the previous month. Raw material prices still have room to probe further down in November, market sentiment is under pressure, the start of the winter storage market is unlikely to come early, and enterprise operating loads may continue to edge lower.

Based on FDD data calculations: as of October 30, 2026, the domestic DAP 64% granular index stood at 4,770.00, down 58.33 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decline of 1.21%; the 60% brown index was 4,150.00, down 450.00 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decline of 9.78%; and the 57% content DAP index was 4,388.18, down 387.50 from the beginning of the month, a month-on-month decline of 9.09%.

In the first half of the month, the market as a whole was weak; although enterprise quotations adjusted only modestly, actual deals remained negotiable. Grassroots demand was slow to emerge and market sentiment stayed under pressure; some traders chose to dump cargo at low prices to speed up shipments, which dragged down the overall transaction center, pessimism kept spreading, price dispersion was pronounced, and industrial channels saw obvious declines. In mid-month, raw material prices fluctuated lower and cost support weakened somewhat; some enterprises made certain concessions on price to encourage business, with actual deals kept negotiable. As autumn fertilization gradually entered its closing stage, bearish sentiment kept intensifying, low-priced cargo emerged one after another, and the bargaining center kept shifting down, though new order business remained limited. As soil moisture gradually improved, grassroots purchasing began to unfold.

In the second half of the month, raw material prices continued to fall sharply, and the cost side further aggravated pressure on market sentiment; enterprises focused on executing pending orders and shifted their sales focus to the winter storage market. Bearish sentiment kept fermenting and low-priced cargo remained. Cargo is currently concentrated in the grassroots distribution stage, downstream restocking enthusiasm is low, and buyers only maintain small, need-based replenishment. Toward month-end, autumn fertilizer demand had not fully ended and grassroots distribution was in its closing stage; new order business was sporadic, and because supply was ample, low prices persisted and the 57% price center continued to move lower.

1.3 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

Raw materials

Phosphate rock Resource-side constraints persist, overall supply is unlikely to loosen, rigid consumption in downstream phosphate fertilizer production continues, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels.

Sulfur The market is still expected to weaken further; in a demand-led market, a repair in phosphate fertilizer demand is needed before any positive feedback can be transmitted to the raw material side.

Sulphuric acid Prices follow fluctuations in the sulfur raw material side and also adjust with the production rhythm of phosphate fertilizer enterprises.

Overall, the three phosphate fertilizer raw materials are strongly interlinked; year-on-year high-priced support on the raw material side remains, but downstream fertilizer demand has yet to provide a strong pull, and the raw material market is unlikely to establish a one-way trend in the short term. Going forward, focus on changes in phosphate fertilizer enterprises' production and restocking rhythm after the holiday.

Supply and demand

On the supply side, activity is driven mainly by upstream raw materials and downstream demand rhythm; some producers are flexibly adjusting plant run rates, overall cargo release remains elastic, and the cost side still provides a certain floor. Producers are mainly shipping in an orderly manner with no concentrated surge in volume yet, and supply has been trimmed amid weak demand; however, operating rates are already low, so watch whether a demand repair can lift enterprises' production enthusiasm.

On the demand side, agricultural demand is basically winding down, downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly stick to need-based purchasing, and a wait-and-see mood is heavy. Going forward, focus on whether reserve demand can start on a meaningful scale, or whether binary fertilizer exports can be realized to ease domestic pressure.

Overall, the tug-of-war between supply and demand will continue; in the short term the phosphate fertilizer market is likely to run weak and rangebound, and a clear one-way trend is still hard to form.

1.4 This Month's MAP Market Price Comparison

MAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

1.5 This Month's DAP Market Price Comparison

DAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

02 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Rates

2.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Rate

This month, the domestic MAP industry's monthly average operating rate was about 39.94%, down 8.12% month on month and down 22.20% year on year; the MAP industry operating rate continued to fall during the month and was below the year-earlier level.

2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Rate

This month, the domestic DAP industry's monthly average operating rate was about 43.33%, down 4.35% month on month and down 16.79% year on year; the DAP industry operating rate fell during the month and was below the year-earlier level.

03 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Output Trend

3.1 Domestic MAP Output Trend

According to FDD data, this month domestic MAP monthly output was 711,000 tonnes, down 115,600 tonnes from the previous month, a month-on-month decline of 13.98%, and down 264,600 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 27.12%.

3.2 Domestic DAP Output Trend

According to FDD data, this month domestic DAP monthly output was about 856,000 tonnes, down 55,600 tonnes from the previous month, a month-on-month decline of 6.10%, and down 314,700 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 26.88%.

04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Export Data

4.1 Domestic MAP Export Data

According to customs data, in September 2026 China's MAP exports were 0.00 tonnes, flat from the previous month, down 207,600 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 100.00%; the average export price this month was 0.00 USD/t. Cumulative exports for January-September 2026 totalled 113,000 tonnes, down 1,136,200 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 90.95%.

4.2 Domestic DAP Export Data

According to customs data, in September 2026 China's DAP exports were 0 tonnes, flat from the previous month, down 545,200 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 100.00%; the average export price this month was 0 USD/t. Cumulative exports for January-September 2026 totalled 73,900 tonnes, down 2.44 million tonnes from last year, a year-on-year decline of 97.06%.

05 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Apparent Consumption Data

5.1 Domestic MAP Apparent Consumption Data

In September 2026, China's apparent MAP consumption was 826,600 tonnes, down 167,000 tonnes from the previous month, a month-on-month decline of 16.81%, and down 32,400 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 3.77%. Cumulative apparent consumption for January-August 2026 was 8,483,100 tonnes, up 847,900 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 11.10%.

5.2 Domestic DAP Apparent Consumption Data

In September 2026, China's apparent DAP consumption was 911,600 tonnes, up 15,100 tonnes from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 1.68%, and up 48,100 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 5.57%. Cumulative apparent consumption for January-August 2026 was 8,134,000 tonnes, up 518,200 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 6.80%.

06 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend

6.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend

As of the end of this month, the main-port inventory of MAP in the domestic market was 0.00 tonnes, flat from the end of last month and flat from the same period last year; main-port MAP inventory was unchanged during the month.

6.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend

As of the end of this month, the main-port inventory of DAP in the domestic market was 29,500 tonnes, flat from the end of last month, and down 260,500 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 89.83%; main-port DAP inventory showed no obvious change during the month and was below the year-earlier level.

07 This Month's Sulfur Market Price Analysis

7.1 This Month's Domestic Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

In October, the domestic sulfur market as a whole moved sharply lower. During the National Day holiday, USD spot market prices softened; in particular, reports that several Middle East sulfur cargoes had transited the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns about international supply and further weakened market sentiment. As a result, participants generally stood aside waiting, spot trading atmosphere was rather dull, and the overall rhythm showed no substantive change from before the holiday. As time went on, however, buyers in port kept testing lower prices, holders came under pressure and began adjusting their shipping mode, and the market promptly entered a downward channel. The weak USD market did not come to an abrupt halt, which made subsequent buyers even more forceful in pressing prices and kept the trading atmosphere persistently quiet. Domestic producers, meanwhile, had de-stocking motives and kept cutting their resource quotations, dragging down the spot price center, so port prices had no choice but to fall markedly again and again. After many days of downward adjustment, traders finally showed some buying interest, but they still habitually probed for lows; with holders willing to ship along with the trend, prices therefore kept falling, though the pace of decline narrowed compared with earlier. Demand, however, never recovered, especially since the autumn fertilizer market performed only modestly and failed to transmit any improvement to the sulfur market; inquiry and buying power in the market lacked staying power, causing spot prices to fall sharply day after day. Although prices have fallen substantially, they remain at a relatively high historical level, demand-side absorption is still poor, and a clear signal of a bottom and rebound is hard to give before terminal demand improves.

Based on FDD data calculations: on October 30, 2026, the domestic sulfur price for granular cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,750 yuan/t, down 2,350 yuan/t from the beginning of the month; granular cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,730 yuan/t, down 2,350 yuan/t from the previous working day; lump and powder cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,700 yuan/t, down 2,350 yuan/t from the previous working day; lump and powder cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,680 yuan/t, down 2,350 yuan/t from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was 5,600 yuan/t, down 1,600 yuan/t from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was 5,250 yuan/t, down 2,095 yuan/t from the previous working day.

7.2 This Month's Sulfur Market Price Comparison

Sulfur Regional Market Quotations (yuan/t)

08 Domestic Sulfur Industry Operating Rates

8.1 Domestic Sulfur Operating Rate

This month, the domestic sulfur industry's monthly average operating rate was about 50.66%, up 1.62% month on month; the sulfur industry operating rate rose during the month. More enterprises resumed production this month and some large plants added supply, so overall domestic output and operating rates edged up.

8.2 Domestic Sulfur Output Trend

This month, domestic sulfur monthly output was about 962,000 tonnes, up 70,900 tonnes from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 7.96%; sulfur output rose during the month. More enterprises resumed production this month and some large plants added supply, so overall domestic output and operating rates edged up.

09 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Trend

As of the end of this month, the main-port inventory of sulfur in the domestic market was 1,111,300 tonnes, up 147,900 tonnes from the end of last month, a month-on-month increase of 15.35%, and down 1,187,600 tonnes from the same period last year, a year-on-year decline of 51.66%; main-port sulfur inventory picked up during the month and was below the year-earlier level. Arrivals at major ports recovered somewhat this period and domestic output increased, while negative feedback from downstream demand became increasingly severe, so inventory levels gradually climbed.

10 Domestic Solid Sulfur Arrival Trend

According to FDD data: this month, solid sulfur arrivals at major national ports in October are provisionally estimated at about 133,000 tonnes.