Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Review: Market Remains Weak, Awaiting the Start of Autumn Fertilizer Demand (20260904)

September 7, 2026

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The phosphate fertilizer market report dives deep into recent trends, focusing on MAP and DAP price fluctuations and operating rates. With heightened geopolitical tensions, rising sulfur costs, and delayed autumn fertilizer stocking, the market remains under pressure. MAP and DAP prices are experiencing a slight decline as downstream producers sustain cautious buying strategies. Weekly operating rates for MAP and DAP have shown mixed trends, while overall production and inventories remained below historical levels. Furthermore, the sulfur market shows regional variations, driven by geopolitical risks and low inventory levels. As autumn approaches, market stability hinges on the pace of agricultural fertilizer demand and shifts in raw material costs.

1. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Price Analysis

MAP:

The domestic MAP market continued to move lower this week. On the cost side, renewed US-Iran frictions, reciprocal military actions and heightened security risks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed domestic sulfur prices up after stabilization. Port inventories increased but remained low overall, sulfuric acid prices consolidated weakly, and phosphate rock remained under pressure at high levels. Cost support for producers therefore remained relatively strong.

On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers continued to use previously stocked raw materials and maintained only limited rigid-demand purchases. Buying interest was low, new-order transactions were limited, and market sentiment remained cautious and deadlocked.

Overall, The MAP market is expected to remain weak in the short term. Attention should focus on raw material prices, the pace of autumn fertilizer stocking and the pass-through effect of geopolitical developments on costs.

According to Feidoodoo data, the average 55% powder MAP price index was 4,304.00 this week, down 64.50 from the previous week, or down 1.48%. The 55% granular MAP index averaged 4,425.00, down 20.00, or down 0.45%. The 58% powder MAP index averaged 4,642.00, down 48.00, or down 1.02%.

DAP:

The domestic DAP market continued weak consolidation this week.

On the cost side, renewed US-Iran tensions increased shipping-security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic sulfur prices rose after stabilizing, port inventories recovered but remained low, sulfuric acid prices were weak, and phosphate rock remained under pressure at high levels. Cost support remained relatively strong.

On the demand side, demand has not recovered materially and the overall pace of deliveries remains slow. Although the autumn fertilizer stocking window is approaching, downstream participants remain cautious, actual follow-through is limited and large-volume procurement has not begun. The DAP market is expected to remain weak in the short term. Attention should focus on raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through and export-policy adjustments.

According to Feidoodoo data, the average 64% granular DAP price index was 4,565.00 this week, down 6.67, or down 0.15%. The 60% brown DAP index averaged 4,700.00, unchanged. The 57% DAP price index averaged 4,388.00, down 24.50, or down 0.56%.

2. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Rates

2.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Rate

According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was approximately 51.26% this week, down 0.66 percentage points week on week and down 13.91 percentage points year on year. The operating rate declined during the week and was below the year-earlier level.

2.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Rate

According to Feidoodoo data, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was approximately 43.78% this week, up 0.24 percentage points week on week and down 16.71 percentage points year on year. The operating rate rose during the week but remained below the year-earlier level.

3. Domestic Weekly Phosphate Fertilizer Output Trend

3.1 Domestic Weekly MAP Output Trend

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic MAP output was approximately 206,100 tonnes this week, down 1.25% week on week and down 20.88% year on year. Weekly output declined and remained below the year-earlier level.

3.2 Domestic Weekly DAP Output Trend

According to Feidoodoo data, domestic DAP output was approximately 212,800 tonnes this week, up 0.57% week on week and down 23.78% year on year. Weekly output increased but remained below the year-earlier level.

4. Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend

4.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend

According to Feidoodoo data, inventories of MAP at major domestic ports were approximately zero tonnes this week, unchanged from the prior week.

4.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend

According to Feidoodoo data, inventories of DAP at major domestic ports were approximately 29,500 tonnes this week, unchanged from the prior week.

5. Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

MAP:

The MAP market is expected to remain weak. Costs for upstream sulfur and sulfuric acid remain supportive, while compound fertilizer operating rates are recovering slowly. Delays in autumn fertilizer stocking have limited the release of rigid demand, and prices remain under slight downward pressure. The true market turning point depends on the concentrated start of autumn fertilizer demand. Although more than half of the autumn stocking cycle has passed, distributors remain reluctant to lift cargoes, large volumes of advance orders remain held at factories, and spot cargo transmission to downstream users is clearly delayed.

The key point to watch is the pace of concentrated grassroots autumn fertilizer distribution in early September. If end-user demand starts and prompts concentrated replenishment by compound fertilizer producers, increased rigid demand may stabilize MAP prices. If stocking continues to be delayed, the weak market pattern may persist. Sulfur prices and export-policy changes also require close attention.

DAP:

The DAP market will likely remain weak and range-bound. Current prices are at historically high levels, downstream acceptance is clearly constrained, agricultural commodity prices remain low, purchasing incentives at the grassroots level are insufficient, autumn fertilizer stocking has started slowly, and downstream buyers have become more conservative.

However, downside is also limited. Sulfur prices remain high, port inventories are near ten-year lows, Middle East geopolitical factors continue to disrupt shipping, phosphate rock supply has contracted significantly, and integrated production costs remain elevated. The industry overall remains loss-making, leaving cost support firm. The DAP market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should focus on whether autumn fertilizer stocking starts materially in early September and on the pace and strength of end-user demand release.

6. Sulfur Market Analysis

6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

The domestic sulfur market showed regional divergence and fluctuating consolidation this week. High-priced cargoes continued to suppress downstream purchasing willingness, and end-user sentiment remained cautious. Port-market prices rose during the week as holders firmed their offers and trading sentiment improved. Liquid sulfur in Shandong rose temporarily, supported by international bullish factors, concentrated releases of month-end long-term contract orders and low port inventories. Following the increase, downstream pre-stocking demand was released, procurement slowed, auction activity cooled and some cargoes failed to sell, resulting in a cautious market and a slight correction.

East China generally softened from high levels as refinery maintenance ended and local supply increased. Northeast China prices fell clearly in line with outside markets, although some transaction support remained. Northwest China prices edged lower, and brief attempts to raise prices lacked sustained buying. On the demand side, downstream buyers showed limited willingness to actively restock at high raw material prices and purchased mainly according to production needs. The market is expected to remain in a differentiated, range-bound balance between bullish and bearish factors. Attention should focus on import arrivals, domestic refinery operating rates and downstream phosphate fertilizer procurement.

According to Feidoodoo data, on September 4, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 7,800 yuan/tonne, up 300 yuan/tonne from the previous week. Granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,780 yuan/tonne, up 300 yuan/tonne. Lump and powder sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 7,750 yuan/tonne, up 300 yuan/tonne. Lump and powder sulfur at Dafeng Port was 7,730 yuan/tonne, up 300 yuan/tonne. Solid sulfur in East China was 7,700 yuan/tonne, unchanged, while liquid sulfur in East China was 7,475 yuan/tonne, up 250 yuan/tonne.

7. Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to Feidoodoo data, sulfur inventories at major domestic ports were approximately 958,000 tonnes this week, up 2,300 tonnes from the previous week, or up 0.74%.

8. Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

8.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis

China's sample sulfur output was 193,900 tonnes this week, with capacity utilization at 45.62%, up 0.66 percentage points week on week.

8.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

Sample sulfur output in East China was 29,400 tonnes this week, up 2,800 tonnes week on week. Capacity utilization was 30.56%, up 2.91 percentage points week on week. East China accounted for 15% of national sulfur output.

8.3 East China Capacity Utilization

According to Feidoodoo data, sulfur industry operating rates in East China were approximately 30.56% this week.

8.4 Solid Sulfur Arrivals

According to Feidoodoo data, planned imported solid sulfur arrivals at major domestic ports in September were temporarily 4,000 tonnes as of this week.

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